Journal Publications

2024

1. Remote tutoring with low-tech means to accelerate learning: Evidence for El Salvador

   Zoido, P., Flores, I., Hevia, F. J., Székely, M., and Castro, E.

   Economics of Education Review, 2024

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   This paper presents the results of an impact evaluation with an experimental design, that estimates the effect of a low-tech low-cost remote tutoring intervention applied during the pandemic for remedial education purposes on girls and boys aged 9-14 years in three departments of El Salvador. Our main contributions are a) the provision of strong experimental evidence that the intervention can improve student math learning in developing countries for closing education gaps; and b) the measurement of student anxiety levels before and after the treatment, which allows verifying whether student-tutor interactions mitigated some of the negative socioemotional effects of student confinement. The program is found to have had a positive and significant effect of 0.24 standard deviations on math learning, which is equivalent to a 33.8 percent acceleration as compared to the control group. However, no significant effects were observed on student anxiety levels, which suggests that the academic gains were not mediated by these types of socioemotional factors. The results provide valuable information for the design of tutor training and for the development of tutoring protocols, among other aspects, for future similar programs.

Working papers

2025

1. The Causal Effect of Violent Crime on Economic Activity: Evidence from a Ceasefire

   Castro, E.

   2025

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   Violence and economic under-development frequently coexist, yet the labor-market returns to reductions in violence remain poorly understood. Leveraging El Salvador’s 2012 gang truce, an exogenous event that reduced homicides by approximately 60%, I provide causal evidence that substantial declines in local violence translated into meaningful economic benefits. Specifically, within one year, employment in affected areas increased by approximately 8%, and the number of active firms rose by nearly 5%. Utilizing administrative data on firms and crime, I show that these improvements were driven by heightened local economic activity, characterized by increased sales, higher wages, and lower rates of business closure, accompanied by positive spillovers to adjacent areas. However, the resurgence of violence after the truce’s breakdown halted employment growth and led to accelerated firm exits, highlighting the vulnerability of economic gains derived from temporary security improvements.

2022

1. The Monopoly of Peace: Gang Criminality and Political Elections in El Salvador

   Castro, E., and Kotti, R.

   APSA Preprints, 2022

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   Despite the growing body of qualitative evidence suggesting collusion between gangs and political parties in various parts of the world, little has been done to study quantitatively the extent to which criminal organization may affect political elections in such context. Using police data and voting results in El Salvador, we find that homicides in gang-controlled neighborhoods tend to decrease by 24 percent of the mean during electoral seasons. We also estimate that gang control is associated with a 2.75 percentage point increase in electoral participation. These effects are especially significant in the neighborhoods where political parties have a strong voting base. Consistent with the interviews we conducted, this suggests that parties negotiate with gangs to mobilize electoral participation in the areas where they are more likely to receive electoral support and thus increase their chances of winning.

Works in Progress

1. Breaking the Gang: A Preventive Approach to Reduce Recruitment in Schools

   Castro, E., Coy, F., Schmidt-Padilla, C., and Sviatschi, M. M.

Policy papers

2022

1. El Salvador: Migración, remesas y educación

   Herrera, R., Abrego, K., Escobar, J., Castro, E., Garcia, G., and Barrios, J.

   Organización Internacional para las Migraciones, 2022

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2. Saving Democracy: Reducing Gang Influence on Political Elections in El Salvador

   Castro, E., and Kotti, R.

   Harvard Kennedy School, 2022

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   El Salvador is one of the most violent countries in the world, mostly because of gang violence. This paper studies the extent to which gangs affect political elections across El Salvador and hence affect the quality of democracy. Despite the growing body of qualitative evidence suggesting collusion between gangs and political parties in El Salvador, little has been done systematically at the national level. Using police data and voting results, we find that homicides in gang-controlled neighborhoods tend to decrease during electoral seasons along with an increase in electoral participation. These effects are especially significant in the neighborhoods where political parties have a strong voting base. Consistent with the interviews we conducted, this suggests that parties negotiate with gangs to foster electoral participation in the areas where they are more likely to receive electoral support and thus increase their chances of winning. Gangs may also affect elections by forcing political parties to ask permission to get into gang-controlled neighborhoods during campaigns. Also, politicians can agree with gangs to receive gang members’ direct votes and their collaboration to mobilize voters. To mitigate the influence of gangs on elections, we recommend organizing staggered municipal elections to increase voters’ security and discourage politicians’ negotiation through citizens’ protection on election day. In addition, we make a series of recommendations to improve the quality of elections and reduce the effects of gangs control: (1) organize electoral campaign days protected by security forces to ensure parties’ equitable access to gangcontrolled areas, (2) restrict ex-convicts’ voting rights for violent crimes to reduce the influence of gang members, (3) increase the number of polling stations and let voters register in the station they prefer, and (4) extend electronic voting to people living in El Salvador (not just the diaspora).

2021

1. Education Caught COVID-19

   Castro, E.

   Latin American Policy Journal, 2021

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2020

1. Los costos educativos de la crisis sanitaria en América Latina y el Caribe

   Acevedo, I., Castro, E., Fernandez-Coto, R., Flores, I., Perez Alfaro, M., Szekely, M., and Zoido, P.

   Inter-American Development Bank, 2020

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   El presente estudio argumenta que la crisis sanitaria amenaza con revertir los niveles de inclusión y logros educativos de los estudiantes alcanzados en la última década en América Latina y el Caribe. A corto plazo, se prevé que al menos 1.2 millones de jóvenes en edad escolar obligatoria podrían abandonar el sistema educativo, y que de este grupo 38% provendrá de los estratos pobres, 44% será de clase media vulnerable y 18% pertenecerá a la clase media consolidada. La crisis también generará importantes costos educativos a largo plazo. El número de jóvenes entre 18 y 23 años que no estudia y que no cuenta con un empleo remunerado aumentará en 21% con respecto a la situación previa a la pandemia y esto dejará "cicatrices" como desventajas en la capacidad de generación de ingresos en los siguientes años.

   NYtimes: Pandemic Drives Millions From Latin America’s Universities
   Animal Político: 628 mil dejarán estudios por crisis económica y falta de condiciones provocada por COVID
   Reforma: Estiman exclusión de 1.2 millones de alumnos en AL

2. Hablemos de Política Educativa 3: Una década perdida? Los costos educativos de la crisis sanitaria en América Latina y el Caribe

   Acevedo, I., Castro, E., Fernandez-Coto, R., Flores, I., Perez Alfaro, M., Szekely, M., and Zoido, P.

   Inter-American Development Bank, 2020

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   Este estudio presenta datos concretos sobre los efectos negativos del COVID-19 en los resultados de los sistemas educativos de América Latina y el Caribe. Se estima que al menos, 1,2 millones de niños y jóvenes serían excluidos de sus sistemas educativos. En una región donde más de 7,69 millones de jóvenes y niños no asisten de forma regular a la escuela, el costo de la pandemia representa un aumento de un 17% en la exclusión educativa y una perdida de más de la mitad de lo alcanzado en la última década. La pandemia también tendrá consecuencias importantes en la capacidad de los jóvenes para encontrar trabajo, se estima que más de 2,7 millones de jóvenes entre 18 y 23 años se sumarán a los casi 12,95 millones ya antes de la pandemia ni estudiaban ni trabajaban de forma remunerada, un aumento del 21%.

3. The role of Central American Trade in developing El Salvador’s high-value exports

   Castro, E.

   Repositorio Digital de Ciencia y Cultura de El Salvador, 2020

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   This paper describes the development and evolution of El Salvador’s industrial exports. This paper found that El Salvador’s exports to other Central American countries enhance business opportunities observed in an increase in the number of new products exported to this region and this products are more complex compared to the regular exports outside region. However, this paper also finds that the products that are exported first to Central America and then to the rest of the world are not the most sophisticated. El Salvador may benefit from trade diversion that prevents it from exporting high quality products to the world except Central America.

2019

1. Mesoamerica: Are the schools and their environment safe? (Spanish)

   Castro, E., Lopez, A., Viteri, A., and Zoido, P.

   Inter-American Development Bank, 2019

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2. What are the main educational challenges in Mesoamerica? (Spanish)

   Castro, E., Lopez, A., Fernandez-Coto, R., and Zoido, P.

   Inter-American Development Bank, 2019

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2018

1. El Salvador: Better Education to More Children It’s within Reach

   Castro, E., and Zoido, P.

   Inter-American Development Bank, 2018

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